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https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-says-stock-market-boom-ebullient-investors-warrant-caution-2021-05-06/ decent article by Reuters today on the possible bubble worries but its much deeper. there is a host of issues.. the income of the commercial real estate holders has been inflated due to covid and the need to keep the mortgages afloat. So as the income has gotten inflated and these properties were bought up during covid, real estate prices rose like crazy, Im sure you noticed. So all the mortgages come in with inflated incomes but there is a selection of mortgages which yield higher premiums as they carry more risk. As maybe you know these are bundled, rated, and sold. Called Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities and there are plenty of CMBS ETFs worth total of hundreds of billions, if not over a trillion, on the market. With very large institutional holdings, obviously, which have large holdings. The FED released their [Financial Stability Report](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20210506.pdf) today. Basically saying valuations are high. Equities more than doubled the avg annual growth (22.5 to 9%) last year, treasury securities have tripled avg annual growth (26 to 8.3%), high yield and unrated bonds have almost quadrupled it (25 to 7.1). Not to mention the risk premiums on high yield unrated bonds are to 2008 levels. Here is a key paragraph from the report on the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities market: "Other indicators continue to show strains in CRE markets. Vacancy rates continue to increase, and rent growth has declined fur-ther. Additionally, delinquency rates on com-mercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which usually contain riskier loans, remain elevated. Finally, the January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) indicated that banks, on net, reported weaker demand for most CRE loans and tighter lending standards in the fourth quarter of 2020 (figure 1-14)" So basically, Commerial Real Estate is on an obvious bubble, about to come back down, and when it does, it is going to create a whole lot of turmoil. It will be reminiscent of 2008 as the bonds fail and tumble the house of cards.. again. Fuck. Now Im sure if I know this, much smarter people do and have started hedging a market failure. So I have been paying attention to larger market options plays and noticed 60 million in puts bought on the S&P 500 today 7/16 strike 4000, 7/30 strike 3900, 9/17 strike 3100 and 3000 (30+million spent on just 9/17). All in large bulk orders. I am of the thesis we are about to see a massive correction on this mess. I have no bear position and am sharing it as soon as I can because I think it is important.